Researchers report that a single, simplified model can predict population fluctuations in three unrelated realms: urban employment, human gut microbiomes and tropical forests. The model will help economists, ecologists, public health authorities and others predict and respond to variability in multiple domains, the researchers say.

The new findings are detailed in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The COVID-19 pandemic has gone on much longer than many predicted in its earliest months. The world has closely watched its progression, with infection rates measured out on graphs in large waves that sometimes taper to extended plateaus, rather than disappearing as traditional epidemiological models would have suggested they should. Meanwhile, scientists have been working to better understand the factors governing the wave and plateau dynamics of the spread of COVID-19, to be able to better forecast future outbreaks in this pandemic and future epidemics.

A mathematical model created by IGB researchers could help scientists better understand an intriguing characteristic of microbial communities: their ability to achieve stability despite being so diverse.

Microbial communities are groups of microorganisms that exist in a variety of environments — in the soil, in the oceans, and in our bodies. Though these communities are complex and diverse, they are able to form stable ecosystems.